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If you are or have been doing modelling for Basel II, most likely you will come across one or more portfolios with low number of default, probably due to the limited historical modelling dataset in a beign economy environment. Read the rest of this entry »
It is not that far away to the date of Basel II implementation. Most banks would be on their final hurdle, well, at least for Pillar 1.
Up until now, firms who were planned to be beyond standardized, have spent millions. With lot of projects start winding up. One question has floated to the surface, which somehow, did not have a clear answer back then.
For Basel modellers, a common problem is a relatively short period of data. In most firms, they might not even able to get up to 5 years worth of data. Hence, the PD models would normally reflecting a Point in time (PIT) estimate or a Short run cycle (SRC) estimate.
Now, its nothing wrong having a PIT estimate. It is really up to the Bank’s senior management to decide if they want: –> You can read more here
HSBC has annouced its financial results last week (5/3/2007), indicating a profit warning due to its US lending units, one third of the group’s total earnings, that risk management and other controls are not meeting the expectations of with the group’s overall direction. The “specific” unit which Stephen green, chairman of HSBC holdings, was referring to the US mortgage business, which profit has substantially dropped due to the unexpected increase in delinquency in the sub-prime mortgage area. I am not going into too much details of what has already been announced, you can read them in http://www.hsbc.com/hsbc/news_room/news/news-archive-2007?cp=/public/groupsite/news_room/2007_archive/hsbc_holdings_plc_2006_annual_results.jhtml&isPc=true
or google it.
Anyway, reason I raised this topic, along side from the above, here are couple of articles I have read today: Read the rest of this entry »